DETTA INLÄGG ÄR ETT UTDRAG UR KVARTALSBREVET JAG SKICKADE TILL PANDIUMS ANDELSÄGARE 2 FEBRUARI 2015.
As you know I am not a top-down investor but the decline in oil price during 2014 deserves a comment. The price per barrel of oil went from $110.8 to $58.2, a 47% decline. Few experts saw it coming and now no one can explain why it happened. (Although that has not stopped them from guessing.) The reason I bring this up is to reaffirm my case for avoiding all companies whose success or survival is dependent on macro-economic factors, like e.g. oil price or iron ore price. It is not difficult figuring out that if your revenues get cut in half while your costs are the same, you will get into trouble. I sleep better at night knowing that the Fund’s value will not depend on the supply and demand complexities of some commodity.